Macroeconomic Impacts of Tobacco Taxation in Pakistan

The Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC) is funded by the Economics for Health team (formerly Tobacconomics) at Johns Hopkins University (previously housed at University of Illinois Chicago, or UIC) to conduct economic research on tobacco taxation.

JHU is a partner of the Bloomberg Philanthropies’ Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use. SPDC also provides technical assistance to

Research Reports/Working Papers

• An Analysis of the Tobacco Market in Jordan: A Household Survey [2025] – Research Report
• Consumption Behaviour of Cigarette Smokers in Pakistan – The 2023 Survey [2024] – Research Report
• Own- and Cross-Price Elasticity Estimates for Cigarette Consumption in Pakistan [2024] – Research Report
• Survey Report: Consumption Behaviour of Cigarette Smokers in Pakistan [2023] – Research Report
• Estimating the Under-Reporting of Cigarette Production in Pakistan [2022] – Working Paper
• Economic Implications of Cigarette Taxation in Pakistan: An Exploration through a CGE Model [2021] – Research Report
• The Crowding Out Effect of Tobacco Spending in Pakistan [2021] – Research Report
• The Impact of Tobacco Use on Household Consumption Patterns in Pakistan [2020] – Research Report
• Quantifying the Potential Tax Base of Cigarette Industry in Pakistan [2019] – Research Report
• Macroeconomic Impacts of Tobacco Use in Pakistan [2018] – Research Report

Policy Briefs

• The Cost of Cigarette Tax Rate Freeze in Pakistan [2025] – Policy Brief
• Pakistan Tobacco Fact Sheet 2025 [2025] – Policy Brief
• The Extent of Illicit Trade of Cigarettes in Pakistan [2024] – Policy Brief
• Finance Act 2024: Implications of Cigarette Tax Policy [2024] – Policy Brief
• Cigarette tax hike in Pakistan resulted in reduced consumption and a shift towards cheaper brands [2042] – Policy Brief
• Pakistan – Tobacco Fact Sheet 2024-25 [2024] – Policy Brief
• Facts vs Industry Narrative: Cigarette Production and Taxation in Pakistan [2023] – Policy Brief
• Excise Tax Increase on Cigarettes: A Laudable Policy that Needs to be Sustained [2023] – Policy Brief
• Smokers’ response to price changes suggests enormous potential of taxation for discouraging smoking [2023] – Policy Brief
• Tax Law Ordinance 2022: A Long-awaited Excise Tax Increase on Cigarettes [2022] – Policy Brief
• Revenue and Health Implications of Excise Tax Increase on Cigarettes [2022] – Policy Brief
• A Welcome but Insufficient Reform: Excise Tax Increase on Cigarettes [2022] – Policy Brief
• Pakistan has lost nearly PKR 30 billion from under-reported cigarette production in the past three years [2022] – Policy Brief
• Pakistan: Tobacco Fact Sheet 2022 [2022] – Policy Brief
• Higher tobacco taxes will not hurt Pakistan’s economy [2021] – Policy Brief
• The Cost of Inaction: Implications of the Cigarette Tax Policy in Pakistan [2021] – Policy Brief
• Household Tobacco Spending and Consumption: Implications for Tax Policy [2021] – Policy Brief
• Modelling the Revenue and Health Implications of Tobacco Tax Policy in Pakistan: Options for the Federal Budget 2021-22 [2021] – Policy Note
• Tobacco Taxation in Pakistan and AJK: Myth vs. Reality [2020] – Policy Brief
• Tobacco expenditure leads to reduced spending on basic needs among poor households [2020] – Policy Brief
• The untapped tax potential of the cigarette industry in Pakistan [2019] – Policy Brief
• Role of Tobacco in Pakistan’s Economy: An untold Reality [2018] – Policy Brief
• Tobacco Control in Pakistan: The Impact of Tax Reduction Policy [2018] – Policy Brief